With the onset of August comes the realization made by most schoolaged children that their summer break is nearing an end and that a return to pencils, books and teachers’ dirty looks is imminent. It is in the classroom where the critical skills in science and math paired with the creativity developed through artistic endeavors in areas like reading and writing lay the foundation that will help guide these future industry moguls. Where will they make their mark? Who will be the next Musk or Zuckerberg? Who will be the next George Mitchell to wield a yet-to-be-developed technological innovation that will—once again, at some future point—revitalize the petroleum industry?
The children of today are the entry-level professionals of tomorrow, and it is them that I think of when I read market reports that take a long look into the future. Take, for example, the recently released BP Energy Outlook. In the 2017 edition BP’s economists project that by 2035 the world population is expected to increase by about 1.5 billion people to an approximate 8.8 billion total.
In the 18 years between now and then the world’s economy is projected to almost double, with that growth largely driven by increases in productivity in emerging economies. China and India alone account for nearly half of that growth. Along with the increased productivity comes an increase in global prosperity as more than 2 billion people are projected to be lifted from low incomes. Energy is needed to feed that growth.
A central feature of the outlook is the energy transition from carbon-based fuels to renewable sources. Oil demand is expected to continue to increase but at a slower pace as technological improvements like electric vehicles and social acceptance of ride sharing increase. However, natural gas is expected to grow faster than oil or coal thanks in part to the expansion of LNG and increased accessibility to gas around the globe, according to the outlook.
Today’s entry-level professionals—the millennials—are the leaders of tomorrow. Millennials comprise 38% of the U.S. workforce and by 2020 will comprise 46% of all U.S. workers, according to various reports. We will hand over the reins of the multitrillion-dollar petroleum industry to these future leaders. These millennials are “wicked smart,” as they say in Boston, and are looking to make their mark in the world. Where better to make that mark than in an industry that will—with the help of oil and natural gas—lift billions out of poverty while spurring on exceptional economic growth?
Convincing and retaining a generation of brilliant thinkers will require new approaches. We must adapt and embrace a changing of the guard. Through adaptation the industry survived the market downturn and came out better for it, just as it will for future generations.
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